In recent years, the Party and the Government have attached great importance to the issue of safeguarding food security by strictly observing the red line of arable land. The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China states, “Compact the foundation of food security on all fronts, firmly guard the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land, and ensure that the rice bowls of the Chinese people are firmly held in their own hands.” In December 2022, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the Central Rural Work Conference that guaranteeing a stable and safe supply of grain and important agricultural products has always been the top priority for building an agricultural powerhouse. Document No. 1 of the Central Committee in 2023 made “focusing and improving the stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products” the top priority for building an agricultural powerhouse. The potential threat to food security posed by the conversion of water resources to agriculture can no longer be ignored.
The report of the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) states: “We need to improve the national security system and the risk monitoring and early-warning system.” Food security is an important part of national security, and food security must ensure that agricultural water use can be maintained at a scientific and moderate level. The blind implementation of water resource conversion will have irreversible impact on grain production, farmers income, agricultural ecology and rural development. At present, there is still a system blind area for water resource agricultural conversion in our country, and it is difficult to supervise the system because it involves multiple management. Therefore, Zhang Lina's research group clarified the risk formation mechanism, constructed a risk measurement model, and proposed a risk early warning mechanism in view of the hidden, correlated and variable risk characteristics of water resources in agricultural conversion, in order to provide decision-making reference for achieving stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products
General Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China: Research on Risk Measurement and Early-Warning Mechanism of Water Resources Conversion to Non-Farm Use under Food Security (Project No. 23BTJ052).
